So said Bob Dylan, iconic musician. Gary Klein, world authority on intuitive behaviour, seems to agree. In the same way you can predict the weather by looking out a window and noticing what the patterns are, so too experienced leaders and groups can make great decisions and work effectively using their instinctive know-how.
Klein calls this Recognition-Primed Decision-making. The first part of this is Intuition. We use experience to recognize key patterns of any given situation. Recognising a pattern, our intuition tells us what course to take – what makes sense. This is not an analytic process. It’s a pattern-matching process. We have seen it before – it’s familiar. It works the same way as when we look out the window to see what the weather’s doing. It looks like rain – I’ll take an umbrella. Decision made in a moment.
The second part comes when we imagine we’re taking the course of action we first hit upon. Klein calls this Mental Simulation. We evaluate a course of action by imagining we are carrying it out. We spot any weaknesses and find ways to avoid them, making quick improvements. It looks like rain – I’ll take an umbrella – But this is Wellington and it will likely be windy – Very windy – A raincoat would be better.
Imagine you could understand the priorities of a situation, what information was important and what wasn’t, what might trip you up and what action to take, all in the blink of an eye. Well you can. You do. Klein found that experienced leaders and groups that trust their intuition and mental simulation, can take less than a minute to consider complex options and come to a good course of action. Less than a minute. Think about it.
Moreover, Klein found that most decisions (80%) were made this way – even in non-routine, difficult and complex situations.
But work’s not like the weather, right? Wrong. Can you see when the storm clouds are gathering in your office? Can you look at how the operation is running and know you’ve got a problem on your hands without needing a report? Ever had your sixth sense tell you, you need to take particular steps and you just go ahead and do it? That’s Recognition-Primed Decision-making at work. Trust it.
Or in Dylan’s words, trust the “conglomeration of [your] incredible past – whatever experience gotten in any way whatsoever”.
My advice? Take your nose out of the report, stick your head out a window, check the weather, and make a decision. Don’t wait for a report to tell you what you already know.
